They also debate whether a poll asking Americans to choose what they think is the best decade of their lives is a good or bad use of polling. The crew talks about the appeal of celebrity candidates and what it tells us about our politics. The team also looks at how debates about "Critical Race Theory" entered the culture wars, particularly in schools and state legislatures. In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the results of the California gubernatorial recall election. The crew discuss the 2021 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and the very likely recall election in California. As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. Later, Monica Potts joins to discuss why voters sometimes contradict their partisan beliefs on ballot measures. The crew puts Georgia's new voting laws in context and discusses the challenges facing the Biden administration on immigration policy in the short and long term. They also mark two years since the U.S. shut down in response to the coronavirus pandemic, by using data to explore some of the ways American life has changed in that time. The crew tries to rank the electoral significance of some of the biggest stories in the news right now. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. Local news is disappearing across the country. Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. FiveThirtyEight Politics 199 Episodes Share Follow Episodes About 61 minutes | Feb 27, 2023 How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear To mark a year since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. During the span of 25 years, same-sex marriage went from being an unimaginable idea to settled law. 266, the . Transcript for What if America had a lot more political parties? It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. All you have to do is click the iTunes button below to subscribe to this podcast. They also introduce a new FiveThirtyEight collaboration with Ipsos aimed at polling Americans about the issues they care most about in the run up to the midterms. And if partisan loyalists were to make their way onto the Fed board, that degree of power could be abused. Today those numbers have flipped. In this late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke put their Model Talk hats on and discuss the initial results from the 2022 midterms. They also discuss how incumbents have been faring overall in this midterms primaries. Politics Podcast: Baby Boomers' Strength Was In Their Numbers. Finally, they analyze why Bidens approval rating has increased by nearly five points since late July. In the main event, former light fivethirtyeight podcast transcriptsapplications of stepper motor ppt. The crew discusses Manchins rationale and where Democrats might go from here. They consider how much. File Upload. They also address a listener question that suggests Republicans achieve their policy goals more often than Democrats. The crew breaks down the results of the June 7 primaries. Georgians handed control of the Senate to Democrats in a pair of dramatic runoffs and voted for a Democrat for president for the first time in 28 years. Thanks! About 32 million Americans get summoned for jury duty each year. The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, but its not the only one. American government is designed to have components that are not directly accountable to the public. Nate and Galen answer listener questions in this installment of Model Talk. They also explain why a dramatic shift among independent women in a recent New York Times poll shouldn't be taken at face value but also shouldn't undercut the poll. The crew discusses the arguments Biden laid out and where he stands with American voters two years into his presidency. As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, The Primaries Project. A lack of those relationships can actually have an impact on political behavior and interest in extreme ideologies. The crew discusses how much the two parties are spending on campaign ads and if it could factor into the forecasts shift. The crew dives into four major investigations into former president Donald Trumps actions, the legal consequences he could be facing, and how the American public is reacting. A year later, Trump still appears to be the de facto leader of the party. This is the first episode. Feb. 28GLASTONBURY When Jonathan K. Luiz starts work as town manager March 31, he will be making $190,000 per year. It was a fiendishly clever and massively hyped invention. The crew discusses what these results mean for the midterms this fall and where other indicators of the political environment are pointing. They also ask whether the US is in a recession, whether Andrew Yang's third party will succeed and how the DOJ's Jan. 6th investigation is affecting former President Trump. 11:03 AM. Mona Chalabi of FiveThirtyEight.com joins NPR's Rachel Martin for a look at who those people are. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what to make of the divergence between the conventional wisdom that Republicans will do very well in the midterms and polling showing Democrats leading in numerous competitive Senate races. In the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, it appeared that Republican leaders might be ready to break ties with then-President Trump once and for all. Editor Chadwick Matlin turns the tables on Galen Druke and asks him questions about what he's learned from covering the 2022 election and his time as host of the podcast. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. The Gabfest, featuring Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz, is the kind of informal and irreverent discussion Washington journalists have They also discuss the recent trend in Senate candidates refusing to debate each other and why Republicans can't agree on what abortion restrictions to pass. The crew discusses why Sarah Palin may not be a shoe-in for a vacant House seat in Alaska. The crew discusses what high gas prices have meant for politics historically and outline the debates in Washington over how to bring those prices down. They also check in on the upcoming Virginia governors race and discuss a FiveThirtyEight report about how Congress may have inadvertently legalized THC -- the main psychoactive compound in marijuana. They play a game of "Guess What Americans Think," in which the panelists have to guess Americans' opinions on a wide variety of topics, including Elon Musk, inflation and Britney Spears. Two days after Election Day, control of the U.S. House and Senate still hangs in the balance as votes are tallied in the Western states. As of this writing, we still dont know which party will control the House or Senate, and we may not know come the morning. The crew discusses what legal debates are currently playing out, what the decision could mean for the future of Roe v. Wade, and where Americans stand on abortion restrictions in general. The crew discusses why the Republican National Committee chose to censure Representatives Cheney and Kinzinger and how different parts of the party view the violent events of January 6th, 2021. The crew debates which states should vote first in the presidential primaries if the Iowa caucuses were to go away. They also analyze the court's other recent rulings on gun restrictions and school prayer and preview some of Tuesday's biggest primary elections. If you don't already have iTunes, you can download it here. The crew discusses the role partisanship has played in Americans' assessment of risk and their behavior during the pandemic. They also review the mostly finalized congressional maps for the cycle and discuss new polling on American polarization. The crew looks at what Americans think about aid to Ukraine one year on, how the public may respond to Sen. John Fetterman's treatment for clinical depression and former President Trump's legal liability in a Fulton County investigation. Lastly, they ask whether a recent survey of Americans attitudes about secession is a good or bad use of polling. 30, 2021 How The CDC's Blindspots Complicated The Fight Against COVID-19 By Maggie Koerth and Sinduja Srinivasan Filed under Podcast-19 Jun. Galen Druke and Perry Bacon Jr. speak with political scientist and pastor, Ryan Burge, about how declining American religiosity is shaping our society and politics. We assess the state of American democracy, based on a new survey from Bright Line Watch, a group of political scientists that monitors threats to our democratic systems. How did the polling averages and seat-gain projections compare with the actual results? Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump. The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas and Minnesota. The crew follows up on last weeks Republican 2024 primary draft with its first Democratic primary draft. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? They also break down how candidate misconduct is generally factored into the FiveThirtyEight model. Instagram did not return a 200. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. Were still waiting to find out what the deal is, but this focus on slow moving objects in U.S. airspace was kicked off by a Chinese spy balloon that the U.S. shot down earlier this month. Preview of Spotify. With two new hosts, Anjali and Prateek, the second season of The Big Story will feature longer and well-rounded discussions with experts across science, culture, technology, politics, and more. They also discuss recent polling showing that President Biden has disproportionately lost support among traditionally Democratic voting groups. They also have a good or bad use of polling on the topic of death and consider whether a recent Facebook hearing will lead to new regulations for the monolithic technology company. With one week left until Election Day, the crew analyzes some of the high-profile races and which issues Americans care about most as they enter the voting booth. Bot Love was created by Diego Senior. FiveThirtyEight Politics 295 views 25 Feb 2021 Transcribe your podcast [00:00:06] Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics podcast. Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. FiveThirtyEight Politics The Gerrymandering Project: California . By our estimates, the Democrat is on track to win by 45 points, compared to 30 points in '22 and 36 points in '20. twitter. New York City-based political reporters Gloria Pazmino and Erin Durkin discuss the current lay of the land in the Democratic mayoral primary and the issues that are motivating voters with less than a month until the election. They also consider whether the ensuing confirmation process will impact the countrys broader political environment in a Midterm election year. [00:00:19] Overall, more moderate candidates were able to win against challengers from the Right and Left flank of both parties, although there was a sizable protest vote in some instances. Almost a year after the 2020 Democratic National Convention, the crew looks back at the record number of Democrats who ran for president in 2020 and assesses where they are now. As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, The Primaries Project. They also consider why Republican senators' votes on convicting former President Donald Trump broke down the way they did. Pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson joins the crew to discuss a new survey that categorizes voters into at least four ideological quadrants and tries to imagine how voters would align if America were a multi-party democracy. They also consider whether a poll that asks Americans if they think the U.S. is currently in a recession is a "good or bad use of polling.". These articles reported facts without employing biased word choice, slant, or other types of media bias . Also, CalMatters Politics reporter Laurel Rosenhall and political analyst Paul Mitchell join to discuss the status of the California gubernatorial recall election. And what does Florida's new voting law tell us about the GOP's efforts to change the way Americans vote, and the party's larger motivations? The idea of the celebrity politician isnt going away just because former President Trump is out of office. The crew discusses what Cuomo's political future might hold and how New Yorkers are reacting to sexual harassment allegations. James Acton is a physicist and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The crew plays an Independence Day-inspired statistics game and discusses how the most recent Jan. 6 hearing could affect how Americans view former President Donald Trump. Their recent data-driven post-mortem of the Latino vote in 2020 looks at which voters were likeliest to favor Trump and offers some hypotheses as to why. We hear about the decade-long relationship between the two of them, one that dates back to the Kennedys arrival in Washington in the mid-50s, and hear fascinating observations these women make about each other. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. We look at two of this weeks biggest stories -- the killing of Daunte Wright in Minnesota and the U.S. Food and Drug Administrations decision to pause the use of the Johnson and Johnson covid-19 vaccine. The crew discusses the Virginia and new Jersey gubernatorial races a week before election day, and guesses how Americans feel about the potential provisions in the Democrats spending bill. Micah Cohen and Kaleigh Rogers also join to talk about why Republicans are not backing a bipartisan commission to investigate the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol. They also discuss moderate Senate Democrats' push to amend some of the provisions in the American Rescue plan and look at the politics and science behind the push to loosen covid-19 restrictions in states. They also consider how Rep. George Santoss scandals will affect his tenure in Congress and whether he would have been elected at all if his fabricated biography had received more scrutiny during the campaign. The State Of The Polls, 2016. In this installment, the crew plays a game of midterm trivia and analyzes the press coverage surrounding the latest decline in life expectancy. The first half of this episode originally aired on November 5, 2018, and was produced by Dan Pashman, Anne Saini, and Aviva DeKornfeld, with editing by Gianna Palmer and mixing by Dan Dzula. In the first "Model Talk" episode of the 2022 midterms cycle, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the factors behind that forecast. Galen speaks with Atlanta Journal Constitution reporters Tia Mitchell and Greg Bluestein about how the Georgia senate runoff is looking in the final stretch. The crew talks about what led to Cuomo's resignation, how New Yorkers feel about his replacement, and what this means for New Yorks 2022 Democratic primary race for governor. FiveThirtyEight Politics News Latest Transcripts How To Make Polls Better 240 views about 2 years ago 01:12:44 Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done about them. Cuomo denied the allegations, but has faced overwhelming pressure to resign from fellow Democrats, including President Joe Biden. But you can form your own by listening and learning (and learning how to listen). People are angry and politicians are pointing fingers. The crew discusses potential sticking points in the Democrats' infrastructure plan and debates whether it should be considered bipartisan if a sizable portion of Republican voters support it, but Republican lawmakers do not. The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. You can't imitate a worldview. They also check in on where the redistricting process stands around the country and ask what the two parties should be thankful for this Thanksgiving. So, the usual. Galen and Nate discuss what to make of it in this installment of Model Talk.". The crew discusses how the other nine Republicans are faring in their bids to win reelection and debate whether CNNs new polling methodology is a good or bad use of polling. The conventional wisdom is that if former President Trump wants the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, it's his. The crew discusses Congress's recent slew of legislation and whether that trend will continue with the new "Inflation Reduction Act." Galen speaks with him. Politics Podcast: Could Nikki Haley Actually Win The GOP Nomination? They also take stock of how Americans are thinking about climate change and government initiatives to stem carbon emissions, after President Biden announced a goal of cutting U.S. emissions to half their 2005 levels by 2030. The crew discusses the Senate passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, new polling on how Americans think about crime and gun violence, and how state-level debates over abortion bans are playing out. The crew discusses what we've learned from President Biden's first 100 days in office and from his first address to a joint session of Congress. The director of the Harvard Study of Adult Development -- the longest study of human life ever conducted -- concluded in a new book that close personal relationships are the "one crucial factor [that] stands out for the consistency and power of its ties to physical health, mental health and longevity." The crew looks at the issues that have shaped the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races and rounds up some of the other local races and ballot measures around the country. We speak with journalist Sasha Issenberg about how that happened. The episode tracks the 14 days from the murder of the president to when the Johnsons move into the White House, days filled with tragic ceremony and heartfelt moments of solidarity between Jackie Kennedy and Lady Bird. Nate Silver's. As we discussed earlier this week, House Democrats plan on passing a one point nine trillion dollar American rescue plan by the end of the week. @Nate_Cohn: The Democrats are putting up an impressive showing in VA-4, the first special congressional election of the cycle. How FiveThirtyEight Calculates Pollster Ratings. Happy holidays! They also consider whether a new poll showing that America's reputation has rebounded abroad is a good or bad use of polling. As the House Select Committee for Jan. 6 publishes its final report, the crew considers what the committee's impact has been on American politics and former President Donald Trump's standing with voters. Transcript: Ezra Klein Interviews Ta-Nehisi Coates and Nikole Hannah-Jones July 30, 2021 Every Tuesday and Friday, Ezra Klein invites you into a conversation about something that matters, like. They also discuss Bidens sweeping vaccine mandate -- how Americans feel about vaccine mandates in general, how effective they are and if Bidens is legal. Whereas Tester . They also break down the governor's race in New Jersey and other elections around the country. Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb joins the podcast to discuss Americas unpreparedness for COVID-19 and how the country should prepare for the next pandemic. MANAGER'S SALARY. Max Fisher, author of the new book, "The Chaos Machine: The Inside Story of How Social Media Rewired Our Minds and Our World," speaks with Galen about the impacts of social media on politics globally and in the U.S. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. The crew discusses what comes next in Democrats' attempt to pass election reforms, after their proposals hit roadblocks in the Senate. Welcome to Internet Archive TV News! Each week, host Jody Avirgan brings you stories and interviews about how data is changing our lives. What does the bench of Democratic leadership look like beyond Biden? The crew discusses the politically thorny issue of mental acuity in an increasingly elderly U.S. government, and what Americans think about age limits for public office. 04:58 PM. The crew recaps that race and other notable results from the June 14 primaries. Although much of our elections-related attention is already trained on 2024, there are consequential elections happening this very calendar year. In this installment, Robert Crews, a History professor from Stanford University, joins to reflect on the history of the Taliban and the current political landscape in Afghanistan. ( Businessweek) Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. In her new book How Civil Wars Start And How To Stop Them, Barbara F Walter writes we are now closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe. They also ask whether a new poll showing Biden's approval rating at just 33 percent deserves all the attention it's been getting.